Prediction of Multi-Scale Meteorological Drought Characteristics over the Yangtze River Basin Based on CMIP6

Drought is a common and greatly influential natural disaster, yet its reliable estimation prediction remain challenge. The object of this paper to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution drought in Yangtze River basin. multi-time scale characteristics were analyzed based on 19 models 3 emission scenarios CMIP6. results show that CMIP6 model generally has moisture deviation basin, but accuracy been improved after correction ensemble. conditions near future (2030–2059) basin will be more severe than those historical period (1981–2010), with intensity increasing by 7.47%, 18.24%, 18.34%, 41.48% order 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month scales, it alleviated far (2070–2099) 5.97%, 11.86%, ?4.09%, ?8.97% period, respectively. 1-month events are few, spatial heterogeneity strong under different scenarios; areas high frequency shift from upper middle reaches, lower reaches southwestern part entire future, harm these regions also higher. get wetter, variability increase future. larger time is, intense change be, varying about three times as much scale.